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Smart sports betting, and football betting specifically, is depending on the skills of the teams involved instead of random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes a highly effective sports bettor.

Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. However, sports betting – as well as poker – isn’t according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. Therefore the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.

Although most playing online gambling agent strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. In the long haul, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable since it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” based on previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. By way of example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this means tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in all reality, the chances that the next coin toss will end in tails is exactly the exact same whatever the range of times heads has come up already.

In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” according to probabilities. There’s absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The critical element of these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.

That’s not to claim that random chance just isn’t involved, of course it is. Any team can make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. On the other hand the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question will be much more very likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor over the long term. Anyone can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in line with the skills of the teams involved, one will be much more likely to win significant amounts of money over the long term.

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